How Investors Can Avoid Buying Overvalued Shares?

You may have seen investors talking about the undervalued unlisted company share prices. Many investors tend to purchase stocks instead of selling the stocks to many investors. Therefore, it is crucial to know about the valuation metrics so that investors can avoid buying overvalued shares.


So, how to find the overvalued shares in the stock market? Here are some of the factors that help determine the overvalued shares and how to avoid them.

1.                   The PEG Provide Exact Picture About Overvalued Stocks

PEG is nothing but the ratio of P/E that is adjusted for the share’s growth. For instance: if the P/E ratio of 25 with an estimated 20% growth is acceptable. However, the P/E ratio of 15% with only 5% progress is not acceptable. This will create a standardized matrix.

PEF Ratio equals the PEG Ratio PE Ratio/Companies growth rate. You can look at the respective P/E ratio, which is based on the company's earnings. The share price of the listed company factors will provide you with information about past performance.

The PEG refers to the modified version, and known as the dividend-adjusted PEG.

Dividend-adjusted PEG ratio = PE ratio / (dividend yield + growth)

However, if the PEG ratio number is less than 1, it will be a good deal. If it is more than 1, the stock will be considered overvalued. So, you can avoid buying the stock in that case.

2.                   Compare the Bond Yield with The Earnings Yield

Now, this is something to be considered as smart logic to decide whether an unlisted share price list is overvalued or not. You can compare the earnings yield, which is inverse to the ratio of P/E. Therefore, the company having a P/E value less than 20 will likely have to earn a yield similar which is 20%.

Investors can calculate the earnings yield as follows:

Earnings Yield = Earnings per share/ Market price of the stock

Earning yield will always see the yield of the safe bonds and government securities in conjunction. Let us take an example: if the earning yield is around 6% and the value of the bond yield is 4%, then the value is normal for the unlisted shares.

This means you receive maximum funds on the equities compared to the bonds because of higher risk. However, if the total earning yield is around 3.5% and the value of the bond yield is 6.5%. This will show that the unlisted share price is overvalued.

3.                   Determine The Likelihood of the Returning Industry

There are certainly returning industry sectors such as automobile manufacturers, home builders, and steel mills, consisting of unique factors. However, these industries tend to experience steep drops in profit during an economic decline and during economic expansion profit times.

Certain investors are tempted by what seem to be quick earnings, low P/E ratios, and, in some circumstances, substantial dividends when the latter occurs. This is referred to as a value trap. This is true for commodities and investment enterprises that operate regularly.

It is a clear overvaluation if your cyclical enterprises trade at upward phase valuations throughout down cycles.

Bottom Line

These are certain criteria that you can consider to find if the unlisted shares have been listed as overvalued. Therefore, you will be able to avoid such conditions and easily achieve more profit. 

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